4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 30

Washington Commanders 12 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model