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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 21
Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(5:12) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to WAS 19 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
The Three Options
GO
+3.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.75 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
- 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
