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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(:35) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 11-D.Mooney pushed ob at WAS 1 for 3 yards (25-B.St-Juste).

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.74 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model