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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model