4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 56

Washington Commanders 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to CHI 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.57 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP