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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 44

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 16-T.Gill punts 27 yards to WAS 17, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.22 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP