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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 76

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CHI 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 12-V.Jones to CHI 31 for 6 yards (47-K.Hudson; 51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model