Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 70

Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 6

(10:49) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-D.Milne to WAS 33 for 14 yards (24-K.Herbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.33 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model