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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PHI
57.7%
WAS
42.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PHI

Landon Dickerson G Questionable Foot

WAS

Casey Toohill DE Out Concussion
Daniel Wise DE Out Ankle
William Jackson CB Questionable Back
David Mayo LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 24
–
WAS 8

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:56 FG PHI (14:56) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 3 – WAS 0
  • Q2 13:26 TD PHI (13:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – WAS 0
  • Q2 03:00 TD PHI (3:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:01 TD PHI (:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – WAS 0
  • Q4 14:10 SAF WAS (14:10) 35-B.Scott up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (94-D.Payne). PHI 24 – WAS 2
  • Q4 02:00 TD WAS (2:00) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – WAS 8

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:16) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (10:49) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:31) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to PHI 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 6-D.Smith to PHI 44 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:22) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to WAS 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:11) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 10, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 22 for 12 yards (2-D.Brown; 51-D.Mayo).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (14:56) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:46) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 6. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 6 for no gain (88-A.Rogers; 39-J.Reaves).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (7:11) 3-Z.Pascal right end to WAS 8 for no gain (58-S.Toney; 55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:56) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 35, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 36 for 1 yard (39-J.Reaves, 22-D.Forrest).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:08) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to PHI 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 27 for 12 yards (51-D.Mayo; 59-J.Bostic). PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at PHI 24.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%

    (13:09) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:04) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:49) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to WAS 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:17) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 29, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 41 for 12 yards (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to WAS 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (14:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas to PHI 1 for no gain (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:16) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to WAS 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-89-J.Stoll.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 29 for 10 yards (34-C.Holmes).