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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 81

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 29, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 41 for 12 yards (51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP