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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 2

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to WAS 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-89-J.Stoll.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model