Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 60

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 6. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 6 for no gain (88-A.Rogers; 39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model