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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to WAS 6, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model