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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 90

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to PHI 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 6-D.Smith to PHI 44 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model