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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model