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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model