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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 73

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to PHI 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model