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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

KC
70.9%
IND
29.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Matt Ryan (IND) -0.075 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.272 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
IND 18
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

KC

Harrison Butker K Out left Ankle
Michael Danna DE Out Calf

IND

Shaquille Leonard LB Out Back
Bernhard Raimann T Out Ankle
Yannick Ngakoue DE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 17
–
IND 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:28 TD IND (12:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 80-J.Woods for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [99-K.Saunders]. KC 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 00:39 TD KC (:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 09:44 FG IND (9:44) 7-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. KC 6 – IND 10
  • Q2 01:50 TD KC (1:50) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – IND 10
  • Q3 07:59 FG KC (7:59) 19-M.Ammendola 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 17 – IND 10
  • Q3 02:58 FG IND (2:58) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. KC 17 – IND 13
  • Q4 00:29 TD IND (:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 80-J.Woods for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones]. KC 17 – IND 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:57) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-83-K.Granson at KC 4.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to IND 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-C.Lammons.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:09) 6-M.Haack punts 57 yards to KC 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-83-K.Granson.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 77%

    (4:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to IND 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-N.Hines to IND 42 for 10 yards (30-D.Bootle, 44-E.Lee).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (2:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 42 for -9 yards (38-L.Sneed). FUMBLES (38-L.Sneed) [38-L.Sneed], touched at IND 41, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at IND 35.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (9:44) 7-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%

    (4:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to IND 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-84-Ju.Watson.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:44) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to KC 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore to KC 46 for 12 yards (38-T.Brown; 46-L.Rhodes).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 94%

    (10:42) 73-N.Allegretti reported in as eligible. 45-M.Burton up the middle to IND 13 for 2 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:59) 19-M.Ammendola 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 17 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 68%

    (2:58) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (13:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-T.Townsend pass incomplete short left to 83-N.Gray. Penalty on KC-74-G.Christian, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 73%

    (10:52) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to KC 31 for no gain (32-N.Bolton, 47-D.Harris).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (8:41) 19-M.Ammendola 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:39) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to IND 35 for 2 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).