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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 73-N.Allegretti reported in as eligible. 45-M.Burton up the middle to IND 13 for 2 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model