Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(:44) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to KC 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 24-S.Moore to KC 46 for 12 yards (38-T.Brown; 46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.22 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model