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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-M.Haack punts 57 yards to KC 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-83-K.Granson.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model