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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to KC 31 for no gain (32-N.Bolton, 47-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model