Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(11:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to IND 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.99 EP
54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model