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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to IND 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-84-Ju.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.25 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model