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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to IND 35 for 2 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model