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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 19-M.Ammendola 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.25 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model