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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

JAX
27.9%
LAC
72.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbery (LAC) +0.211 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.042 EPA/dropback (LAC starting Justin Herbery in place of Justin Herbert)
  • LAC offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
LAC 28
Projected margin: LAC by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

JAX

Shaquill Griffin CB Questionable Hip

LAC

J.C. Jackson CB Doubtful Ankle
Corey Linsley C Doubtful Knee
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Hamstring
Justin Herbert QB Questionable Ribs
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Foot
Donald Parham TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 38
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 FG JAX (15:00) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – LAC 0
  • Q2 13:55 FG JAX (13:55) 10-R.Patterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – LAC 0
  • Q2 10:30 TD JAX (10:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – LAC 0
  • Q2 06:16 TD LAC (6:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – LAC 6
  • Q2 01:04 FG JAX (1:04) 10-R.Patterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 16 – LAC 7
  • Q3 11:54 FG LAC (11:54) 6-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. JAX 16 – LAC 10
  • Q3 10:47 TD JAX (10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – LAC 10
  • Q3 01:18 TD JAX (1:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – LAC 10
  • Q4 04:59 TD JAX (4:59) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 37 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

    (12:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Jones [56-M.Fox].

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:49) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to JAX 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to LAC 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-D.Carter to LAC 15 for 6 yards (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:22) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 33 for 7 yards (40-Z.Horvath).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (13:55) 10-R.Patterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (1:04) 10-R.Patterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:23) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to JAX 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for -2 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (11:54) 6-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 35%

    (10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:56) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to JAX 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 40 for 13 yards (94-C.Rumph; 36-J.Taylor).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:40) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to LAC 4 for 2 yards (49-D.Tranquill; 3-D.James).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 32
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 77%

    (14:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 81-M.Williams.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-D.Carter.