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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 33 for 7 yards (40-Z.Horvath).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP