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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 50
Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10
What Actually Happened
(10:47) 25-J.Robinson left tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+0.99 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK
-1.23 EP
- 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
