4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 81-M.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP