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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to LAC 4 for 2 yards (49-D.Tranquill; 3-D.James).

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model