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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 6-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model