Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

(9:56) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to JAX 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 40 for 13 yards (94-C.Rumph; 36-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model