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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(:23) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to JAX 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 21 for -2 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model