4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 10-R.Patterson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP