LAC @ KC — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley

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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid

Thursday 2022-09-15 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

LAC

36.7%

63.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

KC offense: +0.241 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
LAC offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
KC defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.306 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.202 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24

–

KC 28

Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Hamstring

Donald Parham TE Out Hamstring

J.C. Jackson CB Questionable Ankle

KC

Harrison Butker K Out left Ankle

Trey Smith G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 24

–

KC 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:01 FG LAC (6:01) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – KC 0
Q2 15:00 TD LAC (15:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 40-Z.Horvath for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – KC 0
Q2 11:47 TD KC (11:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – KC 6
Q3 09:58 TD LAC (9:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – KC 7
Q3 07:28 TD KC (7:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – KC 13
Q4 15:00 FG KC (15:00) 19-M.Ammendola 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LAC 17 – KC 17
Q4 10:43 TD KC (10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 7-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 35-Ja.Watson at KC 1. 35-Ja.Watson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – KC 23
Q4 03:24 FG KC (3:24) 19-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LAC 17 – KC 27
Q4 01:15 TD LAC (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 38%

(10:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 13

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 96%

(6:01) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 49

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 30%

(2:01) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 35%

(9:03) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to KC 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP

p(convert) 76%

(5:25) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 23 for 12 yards (44-E.Lee; 45-M.Burton).
Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 48

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 33%

(1:03) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to KC 13, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 74 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-D.Bootle.
Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 18

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

(10:40) 30-A.Ekeler left end to KC 15 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton).
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 64%

(6:31) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to KC 29, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP

p(convert) 75%

(5:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
Q3 LAC 4th & 17 at the 98

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(4:09) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to LAC 36, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 24-S.Moore.
Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.27 EP

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

(15:00) 19-M.Ammendola 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(8:28) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 24-S.Moore to KC 34 for 4 yards (94-C.Rumph; 47-J.Harris). PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.
Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(6:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 62 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(4:05) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 24-S.Moore to KC 15 for 6 yards (94-C.Rumph).
Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 13 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

(3:24) 19-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 45%

(2:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 1-D.Carter to KC 8 for 35 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.