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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 1-D.Carter to KC 8 for 35 yards (38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.38 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model