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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Los Angeles Chargers
4th & 1 at the 18
Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7
What Actually Happened
(10:40) 30-A.Ekeler left end to KC 15 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton).
The Three Options
GO
+3.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.80 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK
+1.58 EP
- 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
