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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to LAC 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.12 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP