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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 19-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model