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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 5-T.Townsend punts 60 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 23 for 12 yards (44-E.Lee; 45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP