Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 24-S.Moore to KC 34 for 4 yards (94-C.Rumph; 47-J.Harris). PENALTY on KC-6-B.Cook, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model