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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 24-S.Moore to KC 15 for 6 yards (94-C.Rumph).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.73 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model