CAR @ NYG — 4th & Data

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Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule

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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll

Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CAR

42.9%

NYG

57.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYG offense: -0.248 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
CAR offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
CAR defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.044 vs Baker Mayfield (CAR) -0.058 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20

–

NYG 22

Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CAR

Brandon Smith LB Doubtful Thigh

Shi Smith WR Questionable Groin

NYG

Nick McCloud CB Out Hamstring

Aaron Robinson CB Out Appendicitis

Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Knee

Jason Pinnock CB Out Shoulder

Azeez Ojulari LB Doubtful Calf

Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Doubtful Knee

Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 16

–

NYG 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:53 FG NYG (12:53) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 0 – NYG 3
Q1 02:33 FG NYG (2:33) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 0 – NYG 6
Q2 12:19 FG CAR (12:19) 4-E.Pineiro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – NYG 6
Q2 00:59 FG CAR (:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 6 – NYG 6
Q3 12:33 TD CAR (12:33) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 12 – NYG 6
Q3 09:27 TD NYG (9:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – NYG 12
Q4 12:35 FG NYG (12:35) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 13 – NYG 16
Q4 10:50 FG CAR (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 16 – NYG 16
Q4 03:38 FG NYG (3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 16 – NYG 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

(12:53) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 31

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 75%

(8:16) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end ran ob at CAR 29 for 2 yards (53-B.Burns).
Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

(2:33) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 52

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%

(:05) 22-C.McCaffrey right end to NYG 49 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney; 99-L.Williams).
Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

(12:19) 4-E.Pineiro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(8:56) 6-J.Gillan punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(6:13) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.
Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(5:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-S.Smith to CAR 47 for 9 yards (85-C.Myarick). CAR-12-S.Smith was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Breida, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 47.
Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

(:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to CAR 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%

(6:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.
Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(4:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to CAR 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP

p(convert) 57%

(3:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.
Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to CAR 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-S.Smith to CAR 41 for 8 yards (85-C.Myarick).
Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:02) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.
Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 33

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 71%

(12:35) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 38 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 59%

(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 63 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(2:12) 10-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.