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Carolina Panthers

0-2 HC Matt Rhule
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New York Giants

2-0 HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CAR
44.8%
NYG
55.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.248 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.044 vs Baker Mayfield (CAR) -0.058 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 19 12–26
–
NYG 22 15–29
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

CAR

Brandon Smith LB Doubtful Thigh
Shi Smith WR Questionable Groin

NYG

Nick McCloud CB Out Hamstring
Aaron Robinson CB Out Appendicitis
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Out Knee
Jason Pinnock CB Out Shoulder
Azeez Ojulari LB Doubtful Calf
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Doubtful Knee
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 16
–
NYG 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:53 FG NYG (12:53) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 0 – NYG 3
  • Q1 02:33 FG NYG (2:33) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 12:19 FG CAR (12:19) 4-E.Pineiro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:59 FG CAR (:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 6 – NYG 6
  • Q3 12:33 TD CAR (12:33) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 12 – NYG 6
  • Q3 09:27 TD NYG (9:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – NYG 12
  • Q4 12:35 FG NYG (12:35) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 13 – NYG 16
  • Q4 10:50 FG CAR (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 16 – NYG 16
  • Q4 03:38 FG NYG (3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. CAR 16 – NYG 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (12:53) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 73%

    (8:16) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end ran ob at CAR 29 for 2 yards (53-B.Burns).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (2:33) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 21%

    (:05) 22-C.McCaffrey right end to NYG 49 for 3 yards (29-X.McKinney; 99-L.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (12:19) 4-E.Pineiro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:56) 6-J.Gillan punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:13) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-S.Smith to CAR 47 for 9 yards (85-C.Myarick). CAR-12-S.Smith was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Breida, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 47.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (:59) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to CAR 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (6:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to CAR 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 57 yards to CAR 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-S.Smith to CAR 41 for 8 yards (85-C.Myarick).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:02) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 68%

    (12:35) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 55%

    (3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:12) 10-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →