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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model