4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 38

New York Giants 16 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 9-G.Gano 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.15 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model