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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 18

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model