Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 6

(6:13) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.32 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model