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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 13 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP