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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 15

New York Giants 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model